Selling USDJPY with 146.450 target while anticipating BoJ rate decision

On Thursday morning, September 18, 2025, the USDJPY currency pair traded near 147.113, gradually rising from the opening price. Market dynamics in recent days have been determined by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as was widely expected. However, comments from the central bank’s officials were moderately hawkish and expressed cautiousness.

Markets had anticipated more dovish signals. Thus, despite the long-awaited resumption of the easing cycle, the US dollar is now finding support. The greenback plummeted to multi-month lows at first but then regained those losses and continued rising, pressuring the Japanese yen and pushing it back from its recent highs.

From Japan’s side, there are no catalysts to boost the national currency. Trade balance data for August showed a fourth consecutive month of declining exports, confirming the negative impact of US tariffs. Investors’ attention is now shifting to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on September 18. The regulator is widely expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged. Any hints of further delays to monetary tightening will put additional pressure on the yen.

Technically, USDJPY continues to move sideways, confined by resistance at 149.130 and support at 146.220. This week, the price bounced off the lower boundary. So far, there has been no significant momentum to break through the channel’s limits. The Stochastic and Chaikin Oscillators confirm this, as the former is now fluctuating in the heart of neutral territory (near 49–52), indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the latter is in the negative zone but shows signs of growth, signaling a slow recovery of market participants’ interest.

Pay attention to the following trading strategy:

Opening short positions on USDJPY from the mid-channel (around 147.700) is recommended, especially if the BoJ tightens its monetary policy due to persistent inflation. Take profit: 146.450. Stop loss: 148.300.

This forecast remains valid from September 18 to September 25, 2025.