Buying USDJPY amid ongoing monetary policy split

Until November 21, 2025, the USDJPY currency pair is projected to maintain its long-term bullish momentum, driven by a significant divergence between monetary policies in the United States and Japan. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains hawkish, the Japanese regulator adheres to an ultra-loose approach.

This week, the US will resume publishing official reports (including employment and wage data). This could re-establish the pair’s correlation with bond yields and set a new trend. Until then, increased volatility is possible.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that the regulator is aiming for moderate inflation driven by wage increases and economic growth. However, the country's finance minister stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not yet met the BoJ's 2% target on a steady basis. Therefore, the decision to raise rates has not been made, which in turn strengthens USDJPY. In addition, Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first decline in six quarters. Sluggish economic data and uncertainty about the BoJ's future path continue to weaken the yen against the dollar.

Technically, the pair is now trading within a narrow channel near a strong resistance level. Last week's price movement signaled a possible rise in the near term, but the RSI and MACD indicators show that the pair's upward momentum is weakening, calling for caution.

USDJPY is likely to remain within the current range until significant data are released, but it has the technical potential to climb to the 155.00–156.50 area by the end of the week if US statistics prove strong.

The overall recommendation is to buy USDJPY. Profits should be taken at the level of 154.900. Stop Loss could be set at 154.350.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.