Buying USDJPY with 162.000 target as BOJ offers yen no lifeline

Thursday sees the USDJPY pair marching higher, trading near 160.50. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) extremely hawkish posture, sharpened by rising inflation, is the primary driver behind this ascent. Investors have almost entirely priced out any chance of interest rate cuts this year, enhancing the dollar's appeal to global market players. 

On the one side of the Atlantic, the American regulator is laser-focused on fighting cost pressures. Meanwhile, on the other, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is walking a tightrope. The institution is hinting at possible monetary tightening in June, yet it must constantly watch its step—the country's economy is highly vulnerable to external supply shocks. Such a policy ambivalence is precisely what's holding the BOJ back from pulling the trigger, allowing yields to drift further in the greenback's favor.

News of potential currency intervention from Tokyo barely moves the needle. Large speculators are piling into short yen positions, betting on even more weakness down the road. The 160.00 line hasn't been fully breached yet, though the consensus is clear: fundamental gravity outweighs the threat of administrative meddling, thus keeping the upward engine humming. On top of that, JPMorgan analysts believe that direct government action is most likely to materialize closer to the 163–164 zone, leaving plenty of room for additional gains in the meantime. 

From a technical perspective, USDJPY remains locked in an uptrend, with buyers running the show. They have successfully pushed prices off the morning lows and driven quotes toward 160.40, extending the rally from the local bottom at 157.582. Technicals are flashing green across the board: the Chaikin Oscillator is climbing and holding firmly in positive territory, pointing to heavy accumulation and demand-side dominance. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 66, reflecting strong bullish pressure and healthy momentum that has yet to breach the overbought threshold. 

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy USDJPY at the current price. Place Take Profit at 161.80. Set Stop Loss at 159.70. 

This forecast holds true from April 30 till May 7, 2026.