The USDJPY currency pair has been in a steady downtrend since January 9, 2025. Within two weeks in March, the pair attempted to reverse upwards and consolidate at this point, but the news about changes of Donald Trump's US import duties disrupted the upward momentum, sending the quotes downwards.
The pair has been declining for four consecutive months. Today, on April 14, the quotes are near a 6-month low. The asset is trading well below the 200-day simple moving average, as well as 9-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. It is also 3,200 points below the nearest support/resistance level at 146.300.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is at 29, approaching the lower limit of 20. Meanwhile, the RSI on the four-hour timeframe has already reached 20, suggesting that the price may try to reverse upwards in the short term after entering the oversold zone. However, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is consistently below the zero level on the one-hour, four-hour, and daily timeframes, confirming the persistence of the bearish trend.
On Friday, April 11, China announced its decision to raise tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%, retaliating to President Trump's increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. This will significantly boost demand for safe-haven assets, including the Japanese yen, while further fueling the sell-off in the US dollar. And it is already under intense pressure from the US trade standoff with China and the gloomy outlook for US economic growth. This situation could prompt the US Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates.
The following trading strategy may be suggested: selling at the current price with Take Profit at 141,000 and Stop Loss at 144,300.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
