Japan's GDP might shrink in Q1 2025 – Bloomberg

According to a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg, Japan's economy probably went into contraction in the first three months of this year. The median estimate of specialists suggests that the country's inflation-adjusted gross domestic product shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter.

If this forecast is confirmed by official data, it will mark the first quarterly decline of the indicator for the year.

As noted in the agency, the contraction of the country's economy will complicate the Bank of Japan's plans for monetary policy tightening. In addition, the decline in GDP points to the fragile state of the Japanese economy even before the introduction of heavy tariffs by the United States. All these factors, as the Bloomberg experts believe, increase the likelihood of a technical recession.

Preliminary assessment of Japan's GDP growth will be presented on Friday. Forecasters polled by the agency believe that the recent sharp decline in net exports put pressure on economic growth. Consumer spending is expected to remain flat amid rising inflation.

According to Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, there are currently no drivers for Japan's economic growth.