Barclays lowers its Brent crude price outlook for 2025

Barclays has cut its forecast for Brent crude prices this year by $4 to $70 per barrel, with the grade expected to reach as low as $62 in 2026. The analysts cite trade tensions and OPEC+’s shift in the output. 

The bank also projects that the oil market will face an excess of 1 million barrels per day during this year and a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026. 

Oil production outlooks for non-OPEC countries were revised down by 270,000 barrels per day. Barclays expects US crude output to be flat on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

Meanwhile, OPEC production is forecast to rise by 240,000 barrels per day, as the organization’s key members wind down the additional voluntary output cuts, the company says. 

The analysts believe Brent will average $75 per barrel on easing trade tensions. However, the prices could fall below $50 if demand for oil falters and OPEC+ sticks to production increase.