IEA lowers its oil demand growth outlook to 650,000 bpd by late 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its outlook for global oil demand growth, now expecting an increase of just 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the year-end. The major factors behind the revision were global economic headwinds and record electric vehicle sales. As a result, the oil market is under pressure, with consumers shifting away from traditional fuels.

According to the IEA's May report, rising trade uncertainty is putting pressure on the global economy, further suppressing oil consumption. However, the agency slightly raised its 2025 annual demand growth projections by 20,000 bpd, citing anticipated economic recovery and lower crude prices.

The IEA experts paid more attention to developing countries with weakening oil imports, particularly India. Looking ahead, analysts project supply to increase by 760,000 bpd in 2026. According to their estimates, this volume may outstrip demand growth.