Morgan Stanley suggests that OPEC+'s previous oil production cuts may be phased out by October

According to Morgan Stanley, OPEC+ will announce three more production increases this year, putting oil prices under additional downward pressure. The bank’s officials presented their forecasts following Saturday's meeting of alliance members.

One of Morgan Stanley’s analysts, Martijn Rats, suggests that the previous volume of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, totaling 2.2 million barrels per day, will be completely phased out by October. However, not all analysts are unanimous in their predictions about the alliance's future strategy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, anticipates only one more quota increase in 2025.

Despite different views on what OPEC+ will do next, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have maintained their previous forecasts for oil prices and market oversupply by the year-end.

Morgan Stanley also highlights the alliance's lag in implementing its plan to ramp up output. In May, the cartel produced only about two-thirds of the stated volume, and this gap is likely to persist in June and July, the bank suggests. Thus, OPEC+'s stated and actual figures may differ.