Barclays analysts see robust demand for oil in China

According to Barclays analysts, oil demand in China remains resilient despite a surge in electric vehicle sales over the past few years. Meanwhile, strong consumption figures for the first half of the year suggest that the demand outlook could be raised.

The bank estimates China's average oil demand in the first half of 2025 at 17.2 million bpd. For comparison, the figure was 16.8 million bpd for the same period in 2024 and 14.1 million bpd in 2019.

The International Energy Agency estimates that electric vehicles have squeezed about 0.45 million barrels per day of oil demand in China since 2019. Also, fuel consumption growth has been limited by a general slowdown in business activity. Nevertheless, as Barclays emphasized, oil demand in China has not yet peaked.

The bank explains the sustainability of demand by the relatively low share of personal transport in China's oil demand and the increasing importance of the country in global manufacturing activity. Consumption is also supported by the increase in air traffic.