9 January 2023 | Other

Experts estimated a decrease in Russian oil exports in 2023

At the end of last month, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil production in Russia in 2022 is likely to exceed the level of 2021 and will be about 535 million tons. However, the production might decline by around 45 million tons in 2023. This forecast is driven by new EU and US sanctions against Russian oil. In this situation, supplies from Russia will be redirected from Western to Eastern countries.

The EU’s ban on Russian oil imports came into effect in early December. At the same period, a price cap at $60 per barrel was set for purchases of crude oil from Russia. These restrictions have not yet had a serious impact on production, but they have already influenced exports. Supplies have decreased by about 13% compared to November 2022.

Next month, the EU’s ban on imports of Russian oil products will also come into effect. Moreover, a price ceiling will be set for them as well. However, the exact limit has not yet been determined. These new sanctions might significantly affect the Russian oil industry, since the redirection of oil product supplies is a more difficult process. As a consequence, these sanctions may lead to a decrease in primary oil refining volumes. According to the Energy Development Center's forecast, it could decline by 1 million barrels per day as early as the first quarter of 2023. Therefore, crude oil production will also be reduced.

Company MarketCheese
Period: 14.05.2025 Expectation: 1650 pips
Technical and fundamental background supports AUDCAD
07 May 2025 77
Elena_Dorokhina
Elena_Dorokhina

Listed among the best MarketCheese authors
1st in the segment "Currencies"
Period: 08.05.2025 Expectation: 550 pips
EURUSD to drop to 1.13000
07 May 2025 52
Period: 13.05.2025 Expectation: 240 pips
Brent crude price rebound to continue up to 65
07 May 2025 69
Period: 14.05.2025 Expectation: 1000 pips
Buying GBPUSD amid trade talks and weaker dollar with target at 1.344
07 May 2025 34
Period: 12.05.2025 Expectation: 1500 pips
USDJPY rebound fades ahead of Fed meeting
06 May 2025 68
Period: 30.05.2025 Expectation: 975 pips
Natural gas maintains upside potential within megaphone pattern
06 May 2025 75
Go to forecasts