Experts estimated a decrease in Russian oil exports in 2023

At the end of last month, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil production in Russia in 2022 is likely to exceed the level of 2021 and will be about 535 million tons. However, the production might decline by around 45 million tons in 2023. This forecast is driven by new EU and US sanctions against Russian oil. In this situation, supplies from Russia will be redirected from Western to Eastern countries.

The EU’s ban on Russian oil imports came into effect in early December. At the same period, a price cap at $60 per barrel was set for purchases of crude oil from Russia. These restrictions have not yet had a serious impact on production, but they have already influenced exports. Supplies have decreased by about 13% compared to November 2022.

Next month, the EU’s ban on imports of Russian oil products will also come into effect. Moreover, a price ceiling will be set for them as well. However, the exact limit has not yet been determined. These new sanctions might significantly affect the Russian oil industry, since the redirection of oil product supplies is a more difficult process. As a consequence, these sanctions may lead to a decrease in primary oil refining volumes. According to the Energy Development Center's forecast, it could decline by 1 million barrels per day as early as the first quarter of 2023. Therefore, crude oil production will also be reduced.