The AUDCAD currency pair has significantly risen in recent days due to a sharp decline in the Canadian dollar, triggered by the country’s tense trade relations with its closest neighbor—the United States. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that the close economic partnership with America is over. Donald Trump, in turn, broke off negotiations, posing a real threat to Canada’s financial health.
This shock outweighed the positive impact of a 5.6% increase in oil prices on the loonie. Despite higher retail sales in August, the recent data suggest that the US neighbor’s economy is not in its best condition. Preliminary September figures confirm continued consumer weakness. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to ease monetary policy further, with an 87% likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
In the meantime, the Aussie remains strong due to favorable trade prospects. A major deal with the US in the area of critical minerals solidifies Australia's position as a reliable supplier of raw materials, diversifying export channels and lowering risks. Under the current conditions, the country’s economic model, now being less dependent on America, seems to be the most advantageous.
Technically, the market has stabilized after its recent decline. The daily candlestick indicates an attempt to rise, but the overall trend remains uncertain. The Stochastic Oscillator (%K=33, %D=42) confirms continued bearish pressure, as both of its lines are below 50. The Chaikin Oscillator is in negative territory but climbing to zero, signaling a potential slowdown in seller activity.
Given the current economic difficulties in Canada and the recent increase in oil prices, it is hard to predict how AUDCAD will move. It is likely to fluctuate within a sideways channel until fundamental factors emerge that could influence its future direction.
Take a look at the following trading strategy:
Buy AUDCAD at the current price. Place Take profit 1 at 0.91300, Take profit 2 at 0.91570, and Stop loss at 0.90590.
This forecast can be referred to from October 24 to October 31, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
