The Australian dollar is now trading moderately higher against its Canadian counterpart. Surprisingly strong labor market data from the first country, released on November 13, served as a key driver for the Aussie’s rise. The report showed a gain of 42,200 jobs in October and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. These figures have shaken up investor expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy path, causing the probability of rate cuts in the coming months to nosedive. Furthermore, consumer optimism, which hit a seven-year high due to improved economic prospects and household financial conditions, is also underpinning the currency.
Meanwhile, the loonie is in a tight spot. The current situation in the oil market is a dark cloud, as Canada is heavily reliant on crude exports. Bearish outlooks for 2026 from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which project a global oversupply, are weighing on prices. US record production levels make the issue even more acute. Although rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and restrictions against Russian oil companies are creating volatility, they cannot reverse the fundamentally bearish trend driven by the surplus.
However, the CAD's weakness is limited by the fact that the Bank of Canada's monetary easing cycle has already concluded.
The oil market is now attempting to recover, despite underlying technical pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms this trend. Being in neutral territory (%K=49, %D=47), it does not signal overbought conditions and leaves room for further movement in both directions. At the same time, the Chaikin Oscillator remains in the negative zone, indicating persistent selling pressure and casting doubt on the AUDCAD pair's ability to advance sustainably. The market is poised for a short-term correction, a phase that will help determine the future trend and build up liquidity.
Consider the following trading strategy:
Buy AUDCAD during a correction toward the 0.91340 level. Take profit: 0.92000. Stop loss: 0.91050.
This forecast remains relevant between November 14 and November 21, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
