Selling AUDCAD from technical resistance

The AUDCAD pair is now nearing its key technical resistance at 0.9230, from which a pullback toward the 0.9150 support level seems likely.

Fundamentally, the Aussie is projected to weaken against its Canadian counterpart in the medium term. This is largely due to softer commodity markets in Australia and a slowdown in China's economic growth. Being the country's key trading partner, China's sluggish performance continues to cap the Aussie's potential gains.

This bearish outlook for AUD is being challenged, however, by surprisingly strong domestic inflation data. Recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant jump, with the annual rate for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 climbing to 3.2%, the highest since June 2024. This is a notable hike from the previous 2.1% and above the market's 3.0% forecast.

Delving deeper into the report:

The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3%, surpassing the 1.1% estimate.

The RBA's preferred core inflation measure, i.e. the trimmed mean, also accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.7% and marking its first uptick since late 2022.

The most significant price pressures came from: 

Housing (+2.5%);

Recreation and culture (+1.9%);

Transport (+1.2%).

Meanwhile, electricity costs surged 9.0% over the quarter.

In response, markets have almost fully priced out a potential interest rate cut in November. Economists believe the RBA will be forced to adopt a more hawkish stance to rein in inflation, which has once again breached its 2–3% target band.

For the AUDCAD pair, this robust CPI data provides fresh momentum for testing the 0.9230 resistance. Therefore, this level would set the stage for a new correction down toward 0.9150.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell AUDCAD from 0.9230. Profits are taken at 0.9150. Stop loss is set at 0.9250.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.