Defusing geopolitical tensions weighing on Brent prices

Brent crude prices keep heading downward after reaching $62.70 per barrel during early trading on Friday. A steeper decline was triggered by a recent de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, with high chances of a negotiated settlement to the conflict. This has lowered the risk premium that had been keeping oil prices up. The market is now placing the odds of lifting US restrictions against Russian companies like Rosneft and Lukoil. As a result, the supply-demand imbalance may intensify.

Current conditions are having a more significant impact on Brent than American sanctions did. The latter have caused some short-term logistic challenges, but traders remain doubtful about their efficiency in the long run. Market participants may find alternative ways to purchase oil, as past experience has shown.

Fundamental factors are weak. Oil output in OPEC+ countries and other nations—the US in particular—continues to rise. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast of a massive crude oversupply next year is becoming more tangible. Russia, despite external pressure, also reports an increase in production, intending to reach its quota in the coming months, which further increases the imbalance risks.

The technical setup confirms the overall picture. Upward momentum is waning, with prices falling from the recent high of $65.30. The Chaikin Oscillator, being in negative territory, is signaling capital outflows and bearish sentiment. Quotes are now testing the key support level near $62.60, where a noticeable rebound occurred on November 13. If this threshold holds, buyer activity may surge in the short term. Otherwise, the path to $61.50 would open.

Take a look at the following trading plan:

Sell Brent at the current price, with Take profit at $61.50 and Stop loss at $63.50.

This forecast is valid from November 21 to November 28, 2025.