AUDCAD sets sights higher as new uptrend takes shape

AUDCAD is currently trading near 0.98425, trying to find its footing after the corrective slide that played out earlier this week amid new geopolitical jitters. With both sides signaling a willingness to return to the negotiating table, the pressure is slowly lifting, giving the pair room to regain some of the lost ground.

What's helping the Aussie along? The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance is providing a solid boost. The regulator left the door open for more tightening ahead, if inflation expectations heat up alongside fuel prices. And the labor data only reinforced the case: May's report showed unemployment dipping to 4.4% and a solid 40,000 new jobs added—a testament to the economy's resilience and a green light for policymakers to stay the course on their tough rhetoric.

Now, what about the loonie? It is still putting up a fight, buoyed by high crude costs and a 60% chance of the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike before the year is out. That said, the country's trade surplus hit a record level, though this was more about metals than oil, which actually fell. This suggests that the CAD's dependence on fuel isn't as strong as it seems. In addition, commodity prices have already come off from their weekly peaks.

So, where does that leave us? The scales are slowly tipping back toward equilibrium, paving the way for a recovery in the pair. 

Now, let's turn to the charts. AUDCAD is tracing a gentle upward slope on the daily timeline. The technicals are constructive: the pair is camped above both the 20-day (0.98370) and 50-day (0.98250) exponential moving averages (EMAs), underlining the bullish vibe. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator, sitting in neutral territory at around 44–47, is ready to trigger a buy signal.

For those looking to take action, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy AUDCAD at the current price. Place Take profit at 0.99150. Set Stop loss at 0.97980.

This forecast is valid from July 10 till July 17, 2026.