The AUDUSD pair is stuck in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears this Tuesday, hovering near the 0.65150 opening. Although quotes have been trending up since its November 5 low, it's clear that right now, no one is sure what to do next.
Technical indicators tell a conflicting, yet ultimately hopeful, story. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral gear (with %K=51 and %D=37) and has just flashed a slight buy signal as its lines crossed from above. For it to mean anything, the price needs to hold above 0.65000. A more compelling bullish sign comes from the Chaikin Oscillator. Even though quotes dipped on November 11, this indicator keeps climbing in positive territory. This suggests that, despite surface-level hesitation, market players are quietly accumulating positions, creating hidden bullish pressure.
The fundamentals are also lining up in the Aussie's favor. Consumer confidence hit a seven-year high, and business conditions are currently improving, showing the domestic economy is holding up well. This data, along with hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), has pretty much debunked any speculation over an imminent rate cut.
The expected end to the US government shutdown is also giving AUD a boost, putting traders in a "risk-on" mood that benefits commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie. The real test, though, will come after American authorities resume operations, and federal agencies finally release the backlog of economic data. The pair's fate will hinge on those numbers, and what they really mean for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. A December rate cut by the regulator is still being questioned.
Here is a trading plan that may come into play:
Buy AUDUSD if the price holds above 0.65000. Take profit: 0.65700. Stop loss: 0.64930.
This forecast is valid between November 11 and November 18, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
