AUDUSD is trading in flat as markets digest tariff uncertainty

Currently, the AUDUSD pair is hovering around 0.7060, caught in a holding pattern as it digests a flurry of macroeconomic releases and the persistent fog of US trade policy uncertainty.

In fact, this week started with a dramatic twist. A Supreme Court decision to overturn Trump-era tariffs initially knocked the dollar off its stride. Yet, any relief for greenback bears was short-lived. The US administration swiftly countered by imposing a 15% duty on all imports for 150 days, effectively neutralizing the legal setback with a quick executive maneuver. By Tuesday's Asian session, the American currency had clawed back the lion's share of its losses, thus showcasing its resilience in the face of trade whiplash.

On the flip side, monetary policy keeps offering a supportive narrative for the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hike interest rates back in early February, a move to combat soaring inflation, stands in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent pause. This split was the rocket fuel behind the pair's surge to a local high. However, that particular story has largely been written into the price. Investors are now hungry for a fresh spark to reignite the upside.

Such a catalyst may come tomorrow with Australia's inflation print. Forecasts suggesting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will stay above the regulator's comfort zone are acting as a safety net, creating a solid foothold around 0.7000 and keeping sellers at bay. But don't expect the sentiment to shift just yet, though. While the data will almost certainly cause intraday volatility, it is unlikely to alter the market's cautious, wait-and-see attitude. 

Technicals mirror this indecision perfectly. Traders are actively trying to determine their next move. The Chaikin Oscillator, though still in the positive zone, is now sloping downward—a sign that the tide of capital outflows is beginning to turn. In a contrasting flicker of optimism, the Stochastic Indicator (%K=48, %D=43) has just flashed a modest bullish signal from neutral territory. This points to a potential short-term bounce within the current range.

Pay attention to the following plan for your trading:

Buy AUDUSD near 0.70000. Lock in profits at 0.70950. Place Stop loss at 0.69680.

This forecast holds true from February 24 till March 3, 2026.