Buying AUDUSD with 0.6945 in sight as technicals flash oversold

The AUDUSD pair is catching its breath after a bruising run. Prices are now hovering near the key 0.68300 support, where bulls and bears have reached a stalemate during today's session. This is a brief pause in what has been a relentless downward march.

Diving deeper, the Stochastic Oscillator (%K=11 and %D=19) has plunged into oversold territory—a telltale sign that the bearish momentum may be running on fumes. A technical bounce could be just around the corner. But here is a catch: no bullish crossover has materialized yet, so a full-blown trend reversal remains unconfirmed. Currently, the indicator is sending mixed signals—sellers still have a slight edge, though their grip appears to be loosening. The market will require corroborating evidence from other tools before calling a turn. 

The Chaikin Oscillator is camped in negative territory, clearly reflecting that distribution has been the dominant force. Nevertheless, upon closer inspection, its descent has flattened out, tracing a horizontal line that whispers of fading bearish pressure. Still, there is no convincing upward thrust—bulls haven't stepped up to the plate, leaving the signal in a cautious gray zone. Trading data reinforces this idea. A surge in activity on March 23 failed to reverse the tide, while today's modest volumes paired with a tight candle suggest that investors are holding their fire, waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Fundamentals, however, are beginning to tilt. Earlier, the Aussie was pinned down by a stampede into the dollar as the Middle East conflict escalated. But the winds have shifted. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on rate hike expectations, stating the central bank is in no rush to react to the energy shock—effectively burying any lingering hopes for 2026 monetary tightening and sapping the greenback's strength. Adding to the momentum, a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Trump is ready to wrap up the Middle East campaign has lit a fire under risky assets. Together, these factors are creating a tailwind for the Aussie, one that could supercharge its technical rebound from the support zone.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy AUDUSD at the current level (0.68530). Place Take profit at 0.69450. Set Stop loss at 0.6800.

This forecast is valid from March 31 till April 7, 2026.