Selling AUDUSD with 0.68300 target as US deadline on Strait of Hormuz approaches

AUDUSD is now hovering near 0.69165, having rebounded from 0.6832. Partial profit-taking on long dollar positions was the primary driver behind this rise. As the US deadline on the matter approaches, investors are growing more concerned about sharp market moves that could follow any unexpected outcome from Middle East negotiations. Thus, they appear eager to reduce risks in advance. Such an environment has given the Aussie an opportunity to regain some ground.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions in Australia offer little reason for buyers to celebrate. The latest Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 46.3, signaling a contraction in business activity. Elevated energy costs and pervasive uncertainty are weighing heavily on the economy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finds itself in a predicament, with stubborn inflation sitting above the regulator’s target and a heated labor market calling for tighter monetary conditions. Investors have already fully priced in a third rate hike in May. Yet, this very prospect underscores the severity of the country's structural problems, as the economy struggles under the weight of external shocks.

There are more reasons for the AUDUSD weakness, as the greenback is strengthening on the back of resilient US labor market data and rising expectations of higher Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates. The American economy remains steady despite inflation risks, making the national currency a more attractive investment compared to its Australian counterpart.

On the daily chart, prices hovered near the opening level during today’s early trading. Technical indicators confirm this picture. The Chaikin Oscillator remains positive and looks poised to slowly climb higher. The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 44 to 28, signaling that the downtrend is losing momentum. Converging +DI and -DI lines suggest that the pair may be flattening out. From a technical perspective, the market appears to be in position‑accumulation mode, lacking clear direction as it awaits global news.

Pay attention to the trading strategy down below:

Sell AUDUSD at the current price, with Take profit at 0.68300 and Stop loss at 0.69635.

The forecast is valid from April 7 till April 14, 2026.