The 15-minute (M15) AUDUSD chart shows a clear bullish trend within a broader ascending channel.
After plunging to a local low of 0.69150 on July 13, the pair strongly rebounded. A corrective pullback followed on July 16–17, but prices held above the previous bottom and settled higher. The next growth wave is now pushing AUDUSD toward new peaks.
The all-time high of 0.70250, set on July 15, serves as key resistance, while the nearest one stands at 0.70140.
On the support side, the closest barrier sits at 0.69920—a recent structural breakout. Deeper bullish safeguards lie at 0.69810 and 0.69590.
Now, let’s analyze the technical picture:
Vertical Volume Indicator. The highest bars were recorded at the start of the trend on July 14. The current rally toward yearly highs is supported by averages and gradually declining volumes. How to interpret this data? It could signal fading momentum as the pair approaches strong resistance.
Moving Average Convergence / Divergence Indicator (12, 26, 9). The bar chart sits in the positive zone (above the zero line), highlighting bulls’ current advantage. However, the indicator also points to a developing bearish divergence. While the new price peaks on July 20–21 are at or above previous levels, the MACD peaks are in a steady decline. This is a classic warning of overbought conditions and potential trend exhaustion.
Based on the technicals, we should consider two key scenarios:
1. The baseline scenario suggests a pullback before the next leg higher. According to this forecast, the pair is likely to test the 0.70140–0.70250 range and trigger active profit-taking by buyers, leading to a technical retreat toward support levels (0.69920 and 0.69810). This would help offload indicators. Once the consolidation phase is complete and liquidity has built up, AUDUSD is expected to retest 0.70250, eventually aiming for 0.70500.
2. The alternative scenario implies an impulsive breakout. If the US dollar weakens under heavy headwinds, AUDUSD could breach the 0.70250 resistance level in a single move. Consolidation above this threshold would invalidate the bearish divergence and open the path toward the 0.70450–0.70600 range.
Going long from current levels appears rather risky. It is much safer to wait for another corrective pullback to 0.69920–0.69810 and look for fresh signs of an upward reversal.
The overall recommendation is to buy AUDUSD from the 0.69810 support level. Profits should be taken at 0.70300. Stop Loss could be set at 0.69530.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
