Macroeconomic news confirms the dollar exchange rate. The U.S. dollar finds good support in macroeconomic news. On Tuesday, the country's retail sales rose by 0.4% in April compared to March, and this figure was worse than forecasts. U.S. industrial production last month unexpectedly increased by 0.5% month-over-month.
The HSBC bank is taking a broader view of American currency pricing. The dollar continues to swing while the Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to end its monetary tightening cycle. However, uncertainty related to the country's debt ceiling could lead to a change in the American currency, as economists from HSBC suppose.
Experts said that they still expect the dollar to weaken. But the risk of the trend reversal remains, as the situation with the U.S. debt ceiling remains unclear. Meanwhile, this question isn’t new to the currency market.
Currently, specialists of HSBC don’t expect technical default in the country. Nevertheless, the issue with the debt ceiling may again cause rapid growth of market volatility.
If concerns related to the Fed's future actions appear, it may provoke demand growth for the dollar as a safe haven for investors. That may cause a depreciation of AUDUSD and a strengthening of the dollar.
The information about the change in Australian employment is published at 01:30 AM UTC on Thursday. Employment is projected to drop to 25K, and this is a big difference compared to the previous figure of 53K. Employment is one of the most important indicators of the economy. If the forecast is correct, the AUD value is likely to fall. The expectation of this news also puts pressure on the Australian currency.
AUDUSD forms the third downward wave in the H1 timeframe. Breaking through the top of the first wave at 0.6635 will strengthen the movement toward selling. The next support is at 0.6575.
Short-term prospects for AUDUSD are selling.
Target is at the level of 0.6500.
Part of the profit should be fixed around the level of 0.6575.
Stop-loss is around the level of 0.6715.
The bearish trend is short-term, so choose a trading volume of no more than 2% of your balance.