The AUDUSD currency pair is showing signs of recovery as the US dollar weakens amidst falling Treasury bond yields. Investors are eagerly awaiting Australian inflation data, set to be released on Wednesday, which could significantly influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) future policy decisions.
Additionally, the market is keeping a close eye on Friday's US consumer spending report, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD began to rise after breaking out of a downtrend on the daily timeframe (D1) after reaching a low of approximately 0.6086.
In terms of wave structure, the price is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the four-hour chart (H4). During this recent bullish movement, the pair reached a high of 0.6407 before entering a corrective phase. The nearest support level is around 0.6335; if the price remains above this level, further growth is likely.
The relative strength index (RSI, 14) is currently in the neutral zone, indicating the corrective nature of the current movement. However, the indicator is approaching the oversold zone, which may signal a potential new upward impulse.
At this stage, the price is forming candles with long lower shadows, suggesting active buying in the support zone and a possible weakening of bearish pressure. A close of a bullish candlestick featuring a long body above 0.6350 would confirm the market's readiness to continue its upward trajectory.
As long as the pair stays above 0.6335, the primary scenario suggests a continuation of the upward movement. However, a breakdown below 0.6305 could lead to a deeper correction. The RBA's interest rate decision and the upcoming inflation data may serve as catalysts for the next price impulse.
The short-term outlook for the AUDUSD suggest buying with the target of 0.6560. Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 0.6435. A stop-loss could be placed at the level of 0.6215.
Since the bullish trend is short-term, trading volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.