Selling AUDUSD with 0.612 target during correction

AUDUSD has been rising for five consecutive days, reaching a nearly two-week high of 0.6350 on Tuesday, driven by the weakness of the US dollar. The opening price on Tuesday was 0.63127.

On the same day, the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting were released, indicating the regulator's potential willingness to adjust monetary policy in response to key economic data. Additionally, political uncertainty in Australia is complicating matters, with elections scheduled for May 3rd. Traders are now anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut as early as May, with further easing expected towards the end of the year.

The Australian dollar is also facing pressure from trade tensions between the US and China. As a major trading partner of China, Australia risks lower export earnings due to declining demand from the Chinese economy, raising concerns among investors about the outlook for the Australian currency.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing increasing pressure to maintain rates at the current level or even hike them, as trade duties imposed by the Trump administration could trigger inflationary risks. The US dollar is showing high volatility despite the pause in most tariffs. USD growth is now only possible if trade tensions are resolved, while macroeconomic data remains in the background for the markets.

This week will see the release of statistics that could have an impact on the exchange rate. On Wednesday, April 16 US retail sales data will be released. Sales are expected to have increased in March as consumers stocked up on goods ahead of the imposition of trade tariffs by President Trump's administration. On Thursday, April 17, Australian unemployment data is scheduled to be released.

Technical analysis suggests the outlook remains somewhat bearish as long as AUDUSD remains below its 200-day simple moving average, which currently stands at 0.6461.

The Stochastic Oscillator is signaling an overbought condition and possibly an imminent correction.

Current recommendation:

Sell at the current price. Take profit — 0.612. Stop loss — 0.642.