Selling AUDUSD targeting 0.65000 amid limited growth and technical weakness

The AUDUSD exchange rate is rising after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the entry price is hovering around 0.65400.

The RBA’s decision, which went against most analysts’ rate cut expectations, has boosted the Australian dollar. However, markets still anticipate policy easing this year, capping AUDUSD’s upside potential.

Improved business conditions in Australia reflected in rising profits and employment, along with stronger confidence, are providing short-term support for the Australian dollar. However, mixed economic signals like slowing growth and weaker exports (due to China’s demand slump) are fueling uncertainty. While positive corporate trends may temporarily lift AUD, structural risks, including expected RBA rate cuts and global economic instability, continue to limit the currency’s growth.

The expected introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration on Australian goods is adding further pressure to the Australian dollar. These measures heighten trade tensions and weaken the competitiveness of Australian exports in the US market. The resulting USD strength from the trade standoff makes AUD less attractive to investors, pushing AUDUSD lower. Amid global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, the Australian dollar remains vulnerable to external shocks.

Technically, AUDUSD is rising on the 4H chart after crossing its exponential moving averages (EMA (50) and EMA (20)) on July 7. However, further upside requires a sustained break above current levels. The key support is EMA (50) (around 0.65350), a break below would revive the downtrend.

Current recommendation:

Sell AUDUSD at the current price on the background of a rebound. Take profit — 0.65000. Stop loss — 0.65500.