The Brent crude market is now showing signs of slowing within its broader long-term downtrend due to increased buying interest on the short-run horizon. After a significant drop in late July, oil prices rebounded to $69.00 before entering a corrective phase. Brent is currently trading at $66.87 as bearish momentum wanes.
On the daily chart (D1), the Stochastic Oscillator continues to exhibit a bearish bias, while remaining in the neutral zone with %K at 43 and %D at 55. However, downward momentum is decelerating as it approaches the midline. The Chaikin Oscillator shows similar dynamics, hinting at a potential reversal, despite still being in negative territory near -1672.6.
More compelling bullish signals are emerging on the 4-hour timeframe (H4). A classic bullish divergence is forming, with oil prices going down and the Stochastic climbing up (%K=61, %D=56). This suggests growing buying pressure. The Chaikin Oscillator confirms this shift in sentiment, having entered positive territory at +263.8, which reflects increased acquisition volume and stronger demand at current levels. Together, these technical factors create a solid foundation for a rebound.
However, fundamentals remain unfavorable for the oil market. The anticipated OPEC+ production increase at its upcoming meeting over the weekend is putting serious pressure on fuel prices, especially in tandem with rising US crude inventories. An unexpected build in stockpiles during seasonal refinery maintenance suggests weaker demand, while macroeconomic concerns regarding trade tariffs and sluggish economic data continue to undermine energy consumption forecasts.
Given the contrast between technical indicators, pointing to a short-term rebound, and strong fundamental headwinds, favoring further declines, the most likely scenario is a limited technical upward correction before the broader downtrend resumes.
A trading plan to consider:
Sell Brent amid a corrective rebound from the level of $67.15. Take profit: $65.00. Stop loss: $68.00.
The forecast remains valid from September 5 to September 12, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
