Brent crude has almost rallied back to the resistance area between $64.5 and $65.0. However, persistent global oversupply—a fundamental headwind for the oil market—keeps capping prices. This bearish pressure is likely to extend into 2026. Non-OPEC+ countries continue to boost production levels, undermining the alliance’s efforts to regain balance. A sluggish recovery in global demand only exacerbates the situation.
Last Sunday, November 30, the 40th meeting of OPEC ministers and partner countries took place. The following decisions were made:
Production levels were unchanged. The group agreed to maintain the same quotas throughout 2026.
Plans to phase out voluntary supply cuts were paused. Eight OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to halt the planned return of an additional 1.65 million barrels per day to the market in the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors and overall conditions.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ members, such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada, continue to increase global crude supplies, weighing on prices.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil output reached a peak of 13.47 million barrels per day (bpd) in April. Alongside America, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina are currently rocking the boat, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance and fostering bearish market sentiment.
In its November report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record surplus in 2026, as global supply growth (mainly from non-OPEC+) outpaces the rise in demand.
The US EIA shares a similar pessimistic outlook, projecting that global crude stocks will build throughout next year and pressure quotes. The agency predicts an average Brent price of approximately $68.76 per barrel in 2025.
Overall, official statements and reports from the previous week point to a fundamental imbalance in the oil market. OPEC+ attempts to stabilize the situation have almost no effect because of record production from other nations.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Profits should be taken at the level of $62.0. Stop Loss could be set at $65.5.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
