Brent crude can't catch a break right now. The market is completely focused on two things: there's too much oil out there, while demand is looking shaky. That's why prices are under sustainable pressure, even with all the geopolitical risks still bubbling in the background. The chart isn't offering much hope either, pointing to more near-term weakness.
Fundamental picture:
Supply glut. According to forecasts from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the world is poised to face an oil surplus in 2025 and 2026. Here's the thing: production (especially in the US) is climbing just as global demand growth is starting to falter.
Demand slowdown. The cooling economy, particularly in China, is clearly hitting fuel consumption. With recession fears creeping back in, the outlook is getting even weaker.
Dollar strength. A robust greenback makes crude more expensive for international buyers, which puts another dent in demand and adds to the selling pressure.
Of course, a flare-up in the Middle East could always send quotes jumping. But for now, the market is completely focused on the oversupply story.
Technical picture:
Unabated downtrend. Since late October 2025, the price has been stuck in a steady downward channel.
Key levels to watch:
Support. All eyes are on that major $60-per-barrel threshold. A break below could open the door to a steeper fall.
Resistance. On any bounce, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the $65 level are expected to cap the rallies.
With bearish fundamentals in the driver's seat and the technical setup looking weak, oil prices are likely to continue trending downward.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Lock in profits at $60.00. Place Stop Loss at $65.00.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.