Selling Brent crude down to $60.90

Brent prices have not yet been able to close the gap formed earlier this week. Escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela keep pouring fuel on the fire. The American Coast Guard is now pursuing sanctioned oil tankers. Therefore, investor concerns over potential supply disruptions act as a strong catalyst for the commodity market.

However, the situation is not as simple as it seems. In December, eight OPEC+ members collectively boosted their crude output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd). The initial plan was to continue these increases, but recent events have led the alliance to change course and put additional fuel volumes on hold. As a result, OPEC+ quotas won’t be revised in the first quarter of 2026.

But the global oil market is now facing more than one headwind. US trade tariffs and weaker demand from the petrochemical sector are weighing on Brent prices. These factors are partially counteracted by the accelerated issuance of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses.

Nevertheless, such drivers are unlikely to last long. The medium-term outlook for crude remains bearish, despite a modest weekly rally. The prospect of a supply glut in 2026 and OPEC+’s intent to regain its previous market share act as a heavy burden on prices. Moreover, global oil inventories are increasing. These volumes may grow even further next year, as energy companies keep investing in related short-term projects.

From a technical standpoint, Brent prices have left a few unclosed gaps below the current level, including the bullish one from December 16—the most likely target in the near future. The crude rally is gradually losing momentum, as evidenced by the slowing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and its looming reversal.

The overall recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Profits should be taken at $60.90. Stop Loss could be placed at $63.20.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.