Brent prices lose upward momentum and prepare for correction

Brent futures saw strong upward momentum at the end of January, pushing prices to their highest levels since late July 2025. The current session kicked off with a correction after yesterday's wild jump.

The technical picture confirms post-rally uncertainty. Bollinger Bands clearly signal overbought conditions. The price is now sitting close to 69, which is above the upper band (68.97)—a sign of excessive bullish sentiment and the potential pullback towards the middle band.

The Stochastic Indicator further supports this trend. Its %K (67) and %D (66) lines are at the top of neutral territory and have practically merged. This is a classic trend culmination signal, when buyer momentum has been exhausted, but sellers have not yet taken the initiative. The Chaikin Oscillator, despite still being positive, suggests that purchases are getting thinner.

The fundamental drivers of the current growth are short-lived, therefore gradually fading away. A sharp cold snap in the US led to well freeze-offs and production losses of 340,000–600,000 barrels per day (bpd), but operators are actively bringing output back to normal levels. According to Energy Aspects, 100,000 bpd have already been restored, with full recovery expected in the coming days.

As for the Iranian situation, JPMorgan and Citi analysts consider the likelihood of a large-scale conflict to be low. Citi believes that there is a 70% probability that Iran's oil infrastructure will not suffer serious damage. JPMorgan directly points out that, given high inflation and the upcoming midterm elections, the Trump administration is not interested in prolonged delivery disruptions. In addition, the market continues to experience a supply surplus.

Take a look at the following trading strategy:

Sell Brent crude at current levels to take profits. Set a corresponding order at $64.50 and Stop Loss at $72.00.

This forecast is valid between January 30 and February 6, 2026.