Brent crude is vulnerable to steep pullback on geopolitical de-escalation

Today, Brent crude keeps climbing. Quotes have pushed past multi-month highs and are now sitting comfortably above $72 per barrel—a level that always grabs attention. The move was fueled by aggressive buying midweek, with momentum being squarely in the driver's seat. Nevertheless, as Friday unfolds, the early price dynamic tells a more tentative story. The rally looks like it is losing steam, while bears are trying to test the waters at these elevated thresholds.

On the daily timeframe, Brent has punched decisively above the upper Bollinger Band at $71.53—a feat that underscores bullish dominance, though it can also mean the market is getting stretched. Add to that the fact that these bands are narrowing, and you've got a classic setup for a volatility squeeze, which is often followed by a pause or pullback.

Meanwhile, the Chaikin Oscillator remains comfortably in positive territory, confirming that capital keeps flowing into the asset. But here is the catch: while prices are punching fresh highs, the oscillator is not. This bearish divergence suggests that the rally may be running on inertia and retail enthusiasm rather than conviction from deep-pocketed players. Such setups often end the same way—with profit-taking and a trend reversal.

None of this happens in a vacuum. The latest leg up is all about Iran. Donald Trump's 10-to-15-day ultimatum has markets on edge, with real concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Then there is also the US inventory data—a massive 9-million-barrel drawdown, the biggest since September. This kind of news doesn't go unnoticed.

Still, one has to wonder how much of this has already been priced in. Reuters puts the geopolitical premium somewhere between $7 and $10 per barrel. Any sign of diplomatic progress could pull the rug out from under the rally just as quickly as tensions sparked it.

Pay attention to the trading plan down below: 

Consider selling Brent near current levels ($71.87–$72.10), targeting a pullback to the mid-Bollinger band as the geopolitical premium starts to unwind. Place Take profit at $66.60. Set Stop loss at $73.60.

This forecast is relevant between February 20 and February 28, 2026.