Brent crude is currently riding a wave of extreme volatility. With the Middle East being on fire, prices have locked in above $95 and are now targeting the major milestone—the psychological $100 barrier.
Flip to the chart, and you'll see that the setup is textbook. On the one hand, horizontal resistance is holding strong in the $101–$102 zone, a ceiling that fuel has hit more times than you can count. But here is the twist: the support level keeps climbing, and each pullback gets shallower than the last. This is not random noise; it is an ascending triangle, one of the most reliable bullish formations in the technical playbook. And what happens when it breaks? History says to look out above. Based on the pattern, it suggests a $5–$6 hike from the breaching point.
Not surprisingly, the fundamentals are singing the same tune. Iran's new supreme leader just dropped a bombshell, declaring that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed—effectively choking off roughly 20% of the world's oil supply in one fell swoop. In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) didn't mince words, calling it the largest supply disruption ever. Right now, the US and Europe are dipping into their strategic reserves for some temporary relief, releasing barrels to try and calm the storm. However, it is like putting a Band-Aid on a gaping wound. Looking ahead, the situation could worsen before it gets better. Any new attack on tankers, ports, or production facilities will light a match under prices, sending them screaming higher.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy Brent crude at the current price, targeting $105 per barrel by the end of next week. To mitigate the risk of adverse market movements, place a Stop Loss order 2% below the entry point, or around $98.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
