Short-term Brent selloff amid de-escalating Middle East tensions

Global financial markets—Brent oil in particular—have recently experienced one of the most chaotic and volatile trading sessions in history. Crude prices surged dramatically by 30% to a peak near $120 per barrel within hours, only to fall just as quickly and deeply.

These extreme fluctuations were triggered by comments from the US President, who indicated that the active phase of confrontation with Iran is almost over. He suggested the standoff is approaching its conclusion. Additionally, the White House hinted at a possible easing of current restrictions on Russian crude.

Whispers of America’s phased plan to withdraw from the Middle East crisis have already spread through political backrooms. According to major news media, recent turbulence in the commodity market has threatened the global economic outlook, compelling the Trump administration to seek ways to smother the fire and resolve the conflict.

Investors’ reaction was swift. The prospect of reduced geopolitical tensions and the return of additional oil volumes to the market quickly offset part of the risk premium. As a result, Brent prices declined to the $88–$95 range by the end of yesterday’s session. 

On the 15-minute (M15) chart, fuel quotes have just breached the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). Previously, this threshold acted as solid support, helping Brent rebound. However, the setup is different now.

A technical break below the EMA50 confirms a shift in short-term sentiment. This important level has transformed into resistance, signaling the potential for a deeper correction.

The final recommendation:

— Sell Brent crude at the current price, with a $88 target in the coming days;

— Place Stop Loss just above the EMA50 ($95) to manage risk if the market plays against us.