Selling Brent crude with $93.00 in view as bearish pressure builds

Brent crude has recently hit a wall. After a blistering run fueled by the Middle East turmoil, the upward momentum has started to sputter, and the market has settled into a consolidation phase that feels increasingly fragile. At $102.80, the price is still a long way from March's peak of $119.86—and the road back up looks steep.

For starters, Bollinger Bands are tightening, which is a classic signal that volatility is evaporating and pressure is building for the next move. For now, quotes are holding above the midline at $92.20, so technically, bulls still have a leg to stand on. But the failure to cement a foothold above $113.00 earlier in the month is a red flag for fuel. At this point, drifting back toward the midline looks more realistic than charging to new highs. 

Volume tells a one-sided story. Every time oil dips, activity spikes—a clear sign that large investors are cashing out. On the flip side, attempts to rally are met with thinning participation, screaming one thing: no market player is eager to buy at these levels.

The Chaikin Oscillator is flashing an even louder warning. A sharp bearish divergence has emerged: the oscillator plunged from its March 13 peak just as the price was knocking on resistance. This is a textbook pattern of distribution, with smart money quietly heading for the exit.

On the fundamental side, the picture is murky. The US President's talk of potential negotiations with Iran adds an extra layer of volatility. Yet, the elephant in the room—a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—remains a stubborn force pushing quotes down. But there is a wildcard: record-high crude could start biting demand, putting a lid on any upside until the geopolitical situation clears up. 

The most probable scenario right now is further pressure on Brent crude. If tensions persist, oil might stage a bounce to $106.00 before rolling over. However, once we see a genuine de-escalation, the slide could extend straight to $93.00. Either way, all risks are skewed to the downside.

For those looking to take a position, see the trading plan below: 

Sell Brent crude when it rebounds to $106.00. Place Take Profit 1 at $98.60 and Take profit 2 at $93.00. Set Stop Loss at $114.60.

This forecast is valid from March 24 till March 31, 2026.