Brent selloff targets $80.0

The outlook for Brent crude remains highly uncertain, as escalating geopolitical tensions and supply glut risks keep playing tug-of-war. It’s time to pick a side. Market participants seem to be splitting into two camps: moderately bearish and bullish. The former expects a decline toward $60–$70, while the latter believes that the Middle East crisis could propel oil prices to $85–$110.

Let’s take a look at several key forecasts from major players:

Goldman Sachs has recently raised its Brent outlook from $77 to $85 per barrel, not ruling out spikes up to $135 if the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable for a longer period than anticipated.

JPMorgan appears to be more cautious, setting its prediction at $60. The reason behind this decision is simple: production is likely to outpace demand.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects an average oil price of around $70 by year-end, once a surge to $95 in the first half of 2026 subsides.

Fitch shares a similar view, forecasting $70 per barrel.

Now, let’s address the burning supply-demand issue. Consumption is expected to rise by 0.9 million barrels per day (bpd). The trouble is that global output seems to be growing way faster. Production levels in non-OPEC+ nations—particularly the United States, Brazil, and Guyana—continue to climb, making the supply-glut scenario more real.

Last but not least, geopolitical jitters in the Middle East could ease in the near future. In President Trump’s recent remarks regarding the ongoing negotiations with Iran to de-escalate the conflict, the key point is not whether these talks have actually begun, but rather that the US administration has signaled a shift toward scaling back military operations. Consequently, the risks to shipping should decrease, as should energy prices.

The final recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Profits should be taken at $80.0. Stop Loss could be set at $120.0.

Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by Stop Loss) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can't open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it's safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.