Today, April 8, 2026, we are witnessing a major shift in the oil market, triggered by the news of a two-week truce between the United States and Iran. Crude prices have plunged on the event, and it’s pretty clear why:
End of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Tehran has agreed to make the Strait of Hormuz—a key global energy artery that handles roughly 20% of the world's crude supply—passable again.
Back-and-forth talks. The two sides of the Middle East conflict have decided to cease fire for 14 days in order to finalize a 10-point peace deal, with a new round of negotiations set to begin on April 10 in Pakistan.
No more risk premium. In the blink of an eye, the market has recalibrated its expectations, pricing in a diminished threat of strikes on critical energy objects.
Let’s also revise our outlook for Brent crude:
Near-term projections. Prices are likely to continue the current correction, as the fundamental deficit issue takes a back seat amid recent peace developments.
Medium-term predictions. Experts do not anticipate a swift return to pre-conflict lows, given the severe damage inflicted on the region’s energy infrastructure.
If the current two-week peace agreement evolves into something more lasting, Brent prices could test the $70 per barrel threshold as early as the second quarter of 2026. For now, the $84 support level looks like a more realistic target in the short run.
The overall recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Profits should be taken at $84. Stop Loss could be set at $110.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
