Brent crude selloff targets $108 per barrel

Brent crude is taking a well-deserved break today, with a localized correction seen in the cards following a blistering rally. Prices have begun to cool amid reports that President Donald Trump is ready to pull the plug on the Iran conflict—though the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked. From this point on, the market will pay close attention to every word coming from Washington or Tehran. Any official hint at a ceasefire could set off fireworks. 

This shift is actually driven by pain at the pump, which hurts the US administration where it counts most—its approval ratings—while simultaneously fanning inflationary flames. The White House is laser-focused on nudging oil prices back into its comfortable $70–$80 zone, even if that means loosening sanctions on Iran in exchange for dialing down the heat. Behind closed doors, a "freeze" of hostilities is on the table, contingent on a monitored increase in Middle Eastern fuel exports. 

The real surprise here is that Washington is willing to accept a "partial blockade", rerouting supplies through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Such a concession has soothed frayed trader nerves. Market players have concluded that a full-blown war with a complete shutdown of the Strait is unlikely to take place.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is playing a multi-front game: turbocharging domestic shale output and twisting OPEC+'s arm to raise quotas—all to fill the void left by Iranian and Russian barrels. The mere prospect of a flood of "new oil" arriving by summer 2026 is now acting as a ceiling, preventing prices from locking in above $120.

Keep an eye out for an official tweet or State Department press release hinting at negotiation breakthroughs this evening. If one is released, fuel could plummet to the $100–$105 range before anyone blinks. 

The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Lock in profits at $108. Place Stop Loss at $113.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.