Brent crude pullback is coming as geopolitical premium fades

Brent crude closed the pre-Good Friday session near $109 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade still stealing the spotlight. However, don't let the headlines fool you; the ground beneath the market is shifting.

The recent spike in prices was triggered by President Donald Trump's April 2 address to the nation. He offered no clear roadmap for resuming shipping through the strategic waterway. Market players—who had previously trimmed long positions in anticipation of easing Middle East tensions—were caught off guard and forced into an urgent buying spree.

But scratch the surface, and you'll find individuals factoring in a resolution. October Brent contracts are now trading near $82 per barrel, which is a stark contrast to the spot price. Meanwhile, investors poured a record $977 million into the inverse exchange-traded fund (SCO) in March, betting on a reversal once the crisis fades away. 

Pressure is also mounting from the supply side. US crude and product inventories as of April 1 blew past expectations, sparking a correction. This confirms that players are ready to lock in profits the moment they see fresh volumes hitting the market.

As if that weren't enough, OPEC+ is meeting on April 5, and production increases are firmly on the table. The cartel is poised to turn on the taps as soon as the Gulf of Mexico comes back online. When normal flows resume, the correction could gain serious momentum.

Zooming into the daily Brent chart, a symmetrical triangle is quietly taking shape. Prices are holding steady late in the week after bouncing back sharply the day before off ascending dynamic support. The Chaikin Oscillator is holding its head above water and climbing, signaling positive momentum. But here is a catch: the oscillator's rise is lagging far behind the price action. The disconnect near the $113 level could be a red flag, suggesting that bullish enthusiasm is waning. What are the most likely outcomes? Either a drawn-out consolidation or a fakeout breakout to the upside.

Consider the plan for your trading down below:

Sell Brent crude near $112.00. Lock in profits at $103.50. Place Stop loss at $118.

This forecast is valid from April 3 till April 10, 2026.