Selling Brent down to $85.5

As of April 15, 2026, the outlook for Brent crude remains moderately bearish, with some hints at consolidation following its recent plunge. Lingering hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Strait of Hormuz standoff are the primary source of pressure on the energy sector.

Markets are reacting to Donald Trump's statements regarding the resumption of US-Iran talks in Pakistan over the next two days. As a result, the “war premium” is now fading—even though it had previously pushed prices above $110 per barrel. Despite diplomatic efforts, the US Navy has refused to lift restrictions on Iranian exports, preventing Brent quotes from falling sharply below $90. 

Now, let’s take a closer look at the Energy Information Agency (EIA) report, which is due today at 9:30 am Eastern Time (ET). The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) preliminary figures showed a significant increase in oil inventories of 6.1 million barrels—another sign that the US supply glut is weighing on quotes.

We should also take into account the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast. The organization expects the first decline in global demand since 2020 due to high prices, which limit growth potential even if the Strait of Hormuz were to close.

If the EIA data confirms a rise in fuel reserves and the outcome of the peace negotiations in Pakistan is hopeful, Brent oil could plummet and test $85.50. In case of failed talks, prices are likely to climb back to the $98–$100 range.

The overall recommendation is to sell Brent crude if the upcoming meeting turns out to be successful. Profits should be taken at the level of $85.5. Stop Loss could be set at $103.5.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.