The outlook for Brent crude is moderately bullish for the current trading week (running through May 1, 2026), with prices expected to fluctuate between $99 and $106.
The main factor propping up quotes is the escalating standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) fights back with coordinated reserve releases to cool the rally.
Right now, investors are hanging on every word about the UAE's potential exit from the OPEC+ deal—a move that, if confirmed, could unleash a sudden and brutal price drop. The prospect of unchecked supply growth looms large, threatening to pull the rug out from under the market as soon as the geopolitical premium (the fear-of-war markup) starts to fade.
In the broader economy, the World Bank's call for a sustained climb in energy prices is hardening buyer confidence. On the stabilization front, the IEA has greenlit the largest reserve release in history: a jaw-dropping 400 million barrels.
This week, the market is trapped between two terrifying what-ifs: a real physical shortage driven by the blockade, and an OPEC+ fracture sparked by the UAE's move. Any headline—whether about shipping lanes reopening or new attacks hitting—could spark violent 3%–5% price swings in fuel within a single session.
Technically speaking, the oil grade is now trying to test the $115.0 resistance, just behind which lurks a massive army of limit sellers.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy Brent crude. Lock in profits at $115.0. Set Stop Loss at $105.5.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
