Invest in Brent crude up to $107

The futures curve for June-August 2026 is firmly in backwardation, a sign that supply is tightening here and now. Essentially, buyers are willing to pay a premium for prompt delivery.

As the US-Iran conflict heats up, trading volumes have exploded. A decisive break above the $98.80 resistance would act as a launchpad for oil, potentially catapulting prices toward the $110–$120 zone.

Option market data reveals a clear tilt toward defensive positioning—mixed with bold bets on a violent upward spike. Here's how this tension breaks down across calls, puts, and volatility: 

Call options. A massive cluster of open interest looms at the $100 and $105 strikes. Investors are racing to shield themselves from the nightmare of a deeper or longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Put options. A solid floor has formed at $90. Falling below this level seems far-fetched as long as the threat of supply disruptions remains alive and well.

Implied volatility (IV). A thick fog of uncertainty hangs over the market, keeping IV stubbornly elevated and call options painfully expensive—proof that it trembles at the prospect of a price shock.  

This fear doesn't stay locked in options—it seeps into the broader trading mood. Investor sentiment leans moderately bullish, yet tinged with undercurrents of panic. But what's really driving such a tilt? 

Geopolitics. The actual shutdown—or even the credible threat of one—of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes, completely overshadows any fundamental surplus arguments. Earlier forecasts from JPMorgan ($60) and the Energy Information Administration ($79) have been swept off the table.

Inventories. Global commercial stocks continue their downward march, leaving prices razor-sensitive to even a hint of tanker delays.

Fund actions. Quantitative hedge funds (CTAs) are staying long and strong, providing a sturdy tailwind for the uptrend. 

All in all, the most likely scenario sees prices stubbornly holding above $93. If de-escalation fails, the market will challenge the psychological $100 barrier. In case the conflict drags on, expect quotes to reach $130 by midsummer.

The ultimate recommendation is to buy Brent crude. Place Take Profit at $107. Set Stop Loss at $92.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.