Brent crude is showing some serious bullish signs right now. In fact, oil has a good chance of testing the $95–$96 resistance zone, even though the broader macroeconomic backdrop is anything but friendly.
This is a classic case of commodity versus equity market divergence, and the dollar's strength isn't doing much to stop the rally.
What's behind such resilience? The refining sector is emerging as a powerful tailwind for crude. Gasoline RBOB is leading the pack with a 1.41% increase to 3.1205, and heating oil is chipping in with a 0.82% gain. The fact that these products are outpacing the raw commodity reveals all you need to know: physical demand for finished fuel is alive and well. Therefore, refiners must buy more crude to keep up, providing a nice tailwind for Brent.
What about the dollar, then? Typically, a strong greenback would put a lid on commodities. However, oil is shrugging it off, which speaks volumes about its underlying strength and points to real supply tightness that the market can't ignore.
And if you think that's all, wait until you hear this. Another layer of support is that the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global fuel supplies to shrink by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and a series of refinery attacks. As a result, the market deficit in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 has more than doubled to 1.8 million bpd. And with global oil reserves now sitting critically low—beneath 7.9 billion barrels—the stage is set for further upside.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy Brent crude. Place Take Profit at $99.50. Set Stop Loss at $90.85.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
