On Friday, Brent oil is moderately declining, continuing a movement that started during yesterday's trading session. The price fell below $70 per barrel amid combined pressure of the aggressive US tariff policy and the unexpected decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of production increases.
On Thursday, the price of this benchmark crude fell by 6.4%. President Donald Trump's imposition of duties on nearly all key US trading partners heightened fears of a slowing global economy. Almost simultaneously, OPEC+ countries tripled their production growth for May. These actions were characterized by some cartel members as a sanction against countries that exceeded quotas, further increasing pressure in the market.
Goldman Sachs revised its December forecast for Brent, lowering it from $71 to $66 per barrel. The bank also warns of rising price volatility amid increasing recession risks. Analysts point to weak demand from China and continued uncertainty over restrictive US policies toward oil exporters as additional pressure factors.
Signs of consolidation may appear only with the stabilization of global demand and clarification of the OPEC+ position.
From a technical point of view, the price of Brent oil shows a strong bearish momentum. The wave structure on the H4 timeframe indicates the formation of the third downward wave. The movement may intensify if the top of the first wave at $68.33 is broken, as the Moving Average of Oscillator (parameters 12, 26, 9) demonstrates a strengthening bearish momentum and volume growth in the negative zone.
Signal:
The short-term outlook for Brent oil suggests selling with a target of 62.70.
Partial profit taking is recommended around 66.30, while the loss limitation level is set at 74.00.
The bearish scenario is short-term, so a trading volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
