Brent crude declined Friday, despite an early uptick driven by US efforts to restrict Iranian oil trade and increase pressure on Tehran. The decline followed Iran's reaffirmation of its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation principles and expectations that major oil producers might increase output. The opening price was 68.13 at the time of analysis.
The anticipated OPEC+ meeting remains the primary price pressure factor. The organization is expected to announce a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August. Additional supply could worsen the oil surplus, particularly as demand slows. US inventory data showing an unexpected 3.85 million barrel increase has heightened concerns about growing global reserves, especially with key economies like China and the US facing slower growth amid trade tensions.
Trade uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy adds further pressure. President Trump's announcement of warning letters regarding potential import duties to key partners, including the EU and Japan, increases global economic risks and threatens oil demand. The market remains highly volatile, responding to each political signal.
As of July 4, 2025, Brent is in a corrective phase following an earlier sharp rise. After a significant price increase and subsequent correction, the price rebounded from support levels before resuming its decline.
The Stochastic Oscillator's proximity to overbought territory suggests continued downward movement toward 64. Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the bearish long-term trend persists.
The upcoming OPEC+ production decision warrants close attention. A confirmed increase of 411,000 barrels per day would likely pressure prices further. However, a smaller-than-expected supply increase could limit the decline.
Current recommendation:
Sell at current levels. Take profit — 64,00. Stop loss — 69,80.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
