Investing in Bitcoin as Fed holds steady on rates

Pull up the daily BTCUSD chart from March 17, 2026. Here's what stands out: Bitcoin is undoubtedly in an uptrend. After bouncing off a local low at $62,560 in late February, the crypto went on a tear, ripping all the way up to a monthly high of $75,994 before slamming into a wall of resistance. As things stand, today's session is poised to end with a classic bearish candlestick—a long upper wick, maybe even a shooting star or inverted cross. That is the market's way of saying buyers are exhausted, and a correction is brewing somewhere under.

Bollinger Bands nod in agreement. The upper one hovers near $74,061, and prices can't seem to hold above it—a textbook sign of short-term overheating. However, bands are still widening, telling us that volatility is here to stay, and the bigger trend isn't waving the white flag just yet. 

Over at the Chaikin Oscillator, the picture is looking good. The indicator remains positive, confirming that buyers haven't given up and are poised to accumulate. But take a closer look—the line has dipped slightly, mirroring today's bearish move. Nothing alarming yet. Though, there is one more kicker to take into account: volumes stay low during dips. This suggests that major players aren't panicking. They are holding firm, being completely confident that the next leg up is still on the table. 

Now, on to the good stuff. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are riding a hot streak with their third consecutive week of net inflows. Here's an interesting stat: BTC's share on exchanges has plunged to levels not seen since 2017. Fewer coins in there mean less selling pressure. This is rocket fuel for the new rally. Looking ahead, the week is packed with some serious catalysts. Tomorrow, March 18, will bring the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision (market's betting heavy on a pause, no shift expected). On top of that, those lingering geopolitical storms in the Middle East refuse to cool off. If the US regulator drops any clear hints at monetary tightening later in 2026, we could see a swift, sharp pullback—potentially cascading down to the $70,000–$71,000 zone, with a wave of liquidations ripping through leveraged positions.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Wait for the Fed's decision. If there are no signs of policy tightening, buy the BTCUSD pair at the current price or on a pullback to the $72,500–$73,000 range. Place Take profit at $79,000. Set Stop loss at $70,500.

This forecast holds true from March 17 till March 24, 2026.