Selling Bitcoin if US inflation surges

As of May 25, 2026, the current state of the Bitcoin market can be described as an “institutional drought” and an “emotional pit”.

The Greed and Fear Index is now extremely low at 25, reflecting heightened concerns among traders. This figure raises many questions, but the answer is straightforward: BTC has been declining for quite some time, sliding from the previous $82,000 to the current $76,000–$77,000 range. One may ask what lies behind it. Typically, “Extreme Fear” signals that the market is just about to hit rock bottom. Trying to avoid losses, investors tend to flee the asset, providing the so-called “whales” with a favorable purchasing opportunity. Right now, however, no such confident buyer appears to be stepping in, as the index has remained at these extremely low levels for over a week.

Let’s turn to exchange-traded funds. US spot BTC ETFs, which were the key drivers behind the crypto rally in 2025, now seem to be adding to the trouble. Last week saw a loss of $1.44 billion, with the largest withdrawal of $648.6 million on May 18. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which had been growing steadily, recorded a net outflow of over $103 million this week, becoming the leader of the decline. What does this mean? Even institutional holders are now taking profits to reduce risks.

So, why has the trend changed? Actually, it all comes down to geopolitical jitters in the Middle East and elevated US Treasury yields (over 4.5% for 10-year notes). These factors force major players to reallocate their investments into safer alternatives like the American dollar or gold.

This week’s key event will be Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. If it comes in above expectations, capital outflows from BTC ETFs could accelerate, pushing the crypto down to $70,000.

The overall recommendation is to sell Bitcoin if the US PCE report confirms higher inflation. Profits should be taken at $70,000. Stop Loss could be set at $68,000.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.