Bitcoin sell-off targets $60,800 as Fed is expected to adopt more hawkish tone

As of June 16, 2026, the daily BTCUSD chart shows the pair staging a cautious recovery following a deep correction. Prices are now hovering around two-week highs, between $66,000 and $66,500, ahead of the first Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting under the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37—below the 50 neutral threshold—suggesting that bears remain in control. Of course, the indicator is well above its June 5–7 low (beneath 20), but it still failed to reach 50. Thus, bulls have yet to seize the initiative. For now, we are witnessing a correction within a broader downtrend, not a full-fledged reversal.

The Average True Range (ATR) has recently fallen from its early June peak of $4,000 to $2,820, signaling an end to extreme volatility. Still, the waters are not yet calm, and there is an acute risk of a sudden move in either direction.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) is in negative territory, favoring sellers. After hitting rock bottom on June 6–10, the indicator edged higher but showed no signs of a confident reversal. A price increase without a corresponding volume points to a technical rebound rather than a genuine trend change.

The fundamental picture is still a mixed bag, though it has become better in the past 48 hours. During this period, the United States and Iran agreed to sign a memorandum, providing some support for BTCUSD. Meanwhile, the crypto futures market witnessed a short squeeze, with liquidations totaling $524 million—about 70% of which were bearish bets on Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, risks remain: the odds of a Fed rate hike by December have already surged above 50%. Warsh’s hawkish tone at the June 16–17 press conference could become a significant headwind for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Sell BTCUSD from current levels, within the $66,200–$66,800 range. Place Take profit at $60,800. Set Stop loss at $71,000.

This forecast remains pertinent between June 16 and June 23, 2026.