BTCUSD expected to fall to 52,600 as momentum is lost

On Tuesday, the BTCUSD price is declining. Bitcoin has shown sluggish movement over the past three months, remaining in a range between $56,000 and $63,000. This has occurred despite a strong 45% rise in the first half of the year, driven by the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking its spot price. Investors are now anticipating new catalysts for the cryptocurrency market, such as possible changes in US interest rates.

Last week's better-than-expected US jobs report led to a reduction in market expectations for a significant rate cut in the US. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a 50 basis point move of monetary policy easing at the US central bank's November meeting has now been ruled out. At the same time, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is estimated at 87%. Against this background, bitcoin lost its growth momentum.

Moreover, market participants are waiting for the launch of options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF. This event may attract more investors after its approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. However, trading these options may require approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This may increase the complexity and volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

Technical analysis of the BTCUSD price chart indicates the formation of a broad downward correction on the daily timeframe (D1). The price, having rolled back from the local resistance of the channel, is showing signs of an intensifying downtrend. The Moving Average of Oscillator indicator (with parameters 12, 26, 9) remains in the negative zone, supporting the sell signal.

Short-term prospects of BTCUSD suggest selling with the target at the level of 52,600.00. Partial profit taking is recommended around the level of 58,000.00, while the stop loss level is set at 68,500.00.

Since the bearish trend is of a short-term nature, the trading volume should not exceed 2% of the total balance to reduce risks.