Supply shortages and positive news could push BTCUSD toward 100 000

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating around 94,500 this week. The consolidation comes amid a lack of major news influencing investor sentiment. Previously, the cryptocurrency saw significant growth following reports of Trump’s refusal to attempt firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and easing trade tensions between the US and China.

The ongoing trade uncertainty is undermining investor confidence in the US stock market and the dollar, which should theoretically support cryptocurrency prices. However, this has not happened, as markets are growing increasingly uneasy due to the global repercussions of the US President’s protectionist policies.

Amid these concerns, bitcoin's growth has stalled. Investors are awaiting further news and official statements signaling progress in de-escalating trade tensions between the world's major powers. The market needs concrete confirmation to determine its next move.

The situation is worsened by the lack of proper global regulation of the cryptocurrency market and its limited recognition in most countries. This makes bitcoin significantly less attractive to investors compared to traditional assets like gold in today's economic climate.

At the same time, the growing institutional interest cannot be ignored. Trump has already highlighted the possibility of passing the Stablecoin Act this summer, which could provide fresh momentum to the cryptocurrency market as it further integrates into the traditional financial system.

Bitcoin's popularity is supported by large investors, and a supply shortage is developing in the market, which could soon trigger explosive growth in the cryptocurrency.

Investors are advised to monitor the SEC's 13F report, which is expected to be published by mid-May. Based on this report, we can assess the potential growth of institutional support for Bitcoin.

Technical analysis indicates an uptrend formation with a potential correction approaching. The MACD indicator shows buyer activity: the main line is above zero, and the divergence between it and the signal line is increasing. Moving averages confirm the trend reversal - on April 24, the EMA (20) crossed above the EMA (50). This signal can be interpreted as bullish and suggests further price appreciation.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 82 indicates an overbought condition, which could lead to a short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes.

Current recommendation:

Buy BTCUSD in the range of 91 501–94 000. Take profit – 100 000. Stop loss – 91 500.