Selling bitcoin targeting 104,000 as it approaches its all-time high

Bitcoin has shown growth in recent days, approaching its historic high of $111,979. However, this growth lacks the strong fundamental drivers necessary for a sustained break above this mark. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, the most important of which are the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions and President Donald Trump's trade policy. Currently, BTCUSD is trading at $108,706.

There is growing institutional investor interest in bitcoin ETFs, as evidenced by record inflows. For example, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF reached $70 billion in just 341 trading days. Nevertheless, long-term holders are showing signs of distributing their assets, which could indicate a potential correction. This behavior is particularly noticeable among those who have held bitcoin since the first quarter of 2025, when the price fell below $80,000. Such behavior by major players increases the likelihood of a price decline, especially if they continue to take profits at current levels.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are increasing interest in bitcoin as an alternative asset. However, a successful resolution of trade negotiations between the US and China could reduce volatility and strengthen traditional assets, putting pressure on bitcoin. Additionally, BTCUSD's high correlation with the stock market (82% with the S&P 500) limits its potential as a safe-haven. If investors shift from risky assets to more stable instruments, it could trigger an outflow of funds from cryptocurrencies.

US inflation data and the results of trade negotiations between the US and China are expected to be released this week. These events could increase the volatility of BTCUSD. Next week's Fed meeting will be a key event for further market movement.

Technical analysis shows that BTCUSD is trending up, with the price trading above the key support levels, such as EMA(20) and EMA(50). At the same time, the RSI does not indicate an impending correction at current levels. Trading volumes remain stable with no clear signs of significant growth, which could suggest consolidation before the next movement.

Current recommendation:

Sell at the current price. Stop loss — 111,000. Take profit — 104,500.