Selling BTCUSD with $115,700 target while nearing resistance and expecting bearish divergence

The BTCUSD currency pair is now moving within an ascending channel, approaching a resistance area near $120,000. Thus, a corrective pullback is probable. At the moment of writing this forecast, BTCUSD trades at $119,076.00.

The Stochastic Oscillator (with parameters of 5, 3, 3) shows that the %K line sits at 51, while the %D line stands at 64, neither of them signaling overbought nor oversold conditions. However, a clear divergence is forming, as the recent price surge from the low of $116,774 to the current $119,076 was accompanied by the Stochastic Oscillator’s decline, with %K falling faster than %D. This indicates that BTCUSD’s upward momentum is exhausting, and market participants are starting to take profits. Such an environment typically precedes a corrective move, though the price could temporarily maintain the uptrend.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) further confirms this potential divergence. The index is declining while the price continues to rise—a discrepancy suggesting Bitcoin's current uptrend lacks strong support from major market players. Buying interest is likely to exhaust itself, as price growth without corresponding volume increases is unsustainable. Such conditions often emerge when momentum wanes and prices retreat to key support levels.

All these indicators confirm a bearish scenario. While the Stochastic divergence signals a high probability of correction, the OBV's decline reflects weakening bullish sentiment. The key support level for this forecast is the channel’s lower boundary near $115,700. A breakdown below it could trigger further drop toward $112,830.

The following trading strategy may be considered:

Buy BTCUSD at the current price. Take profit: $115,700. Stop loss: $120,000.

The forecast is valid from August 12 to August 19, 2025.